Texas-Sized Trouble for Republicans in the Texas General Election
The fierce campaign between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Texas, while unlikely to affect the ultimate outcome, has produced huge crowds, and an energized electorate, in what has been the reddest of red states for the last thirty years. Indeed, Obama has recently downscaled the size of his venues because his campaign is afraid he’s drawing too many people—potentially creating a “cult of personality” problem for himself. Obama is the first candidate in living memory to worry about being too popular. Few analysts take Democratic chances in the state seriously, but this year Texas is a trap for the McCain campaign: They will have to spend money in Texas to be confident of victory, and if they don’t spend money in Texas, not only do they place all those electoral votes in potential jeopardy, but they badly damage Republican chances down-ticket in Texas. The Democrats in Texas began to stage a comeback in 2006, largely because Republicans had artfully gerrymandered Congressional districts so they had a very narrow plurality of support in many districts, rather than huge majority support in fewer. If the McCain campaign is missing in action in Texas, there’s going to be some Republicans in the state and federal legislatures who are in the midst of their final tour of duty.
